http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6994328.stm
Τεραστιες ουρες εξω απο τραπεζες οπου οι πολιτες ζητανε τα λεφτα τους.
Μια απ'τις μεγαλυτερες τραπεζες σε στεγαστικα δανεια κυρησσει ουσιαστικα πτωχευση. Απ'τις φωτογραφιες τεραστιες ουρες εχουν πραγματοποιηθει σε πολλα μεροι της Αγγλιας.
Ερχονται και χειροτερα αφου οταν αρχιζει να βουλιαζει το τραπεζιτικο συστημα χανεται η οποιαδηποτε πιστη οτι οι τραπεζες μπορουν να κρατησουν τα λεφτα σου ασφαλεις.
Ετσι οποιος εχει λεφτα μεσα θα σκεφτεται εαν χρειαζεται να τα βγαλει η να χρεωθει με χρεη σε αμερικανικες τραπεζες.
Το κραχ αρχισε τελικα. Σε λιγο θα γινεται σαν την Αργεντινη οπου με δελτιο θα βγαζεις λεφτα απ'την τραπεζα.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
Σχεδον ολος ο κοσμος ζει με δανεικα. Η Αγγλια τον τελευταιο μηνα για πρωτη φορα στην ιστορια της χαλαει πιο πολλα απ'οτι παραγει 1.3 δις αντι 1.2δις.
Τωρα κλεινουν τραπεζες η αρνουνται να σου δωσουν τα χρηματα σου.
Το γεγονος οτι αυτο αρχισε να γινεται και στην Νουμερο 2 χωρα μετα την Αμερικη που βασιζεται πιο πολλη απ'ολες τις αλλες τις Ευρωπης στα χρηματιστηρια κτλ. δειχνη οτι η πιστη στο τραπεζικο συστημα κλονιζεται. Αυτοι που τρεχουν να βγαλουν τα λεφτα τους,, που ετσι και αλλιως δεν υπαρχουν στις τραπεζες αφου τα εχουν δανειση το κανουν για να μην μεινουν τελευταιοι και πνιγουν οπως ενα καραβι που βουλιαζει.
Η αντιστροφη μετρηση αρχισε για τον Αμερικανικο συστημα που εισηγαγε η Βρεττανια οταν αποβιομηχανοποιησε την χωρα της, εκλεισε ολες τις πηγες πρωτης ενεργιας οπως τον ανθρακα και αρχισε απλως να τυπωνει νομισμα, που στο τελος δεν θα ειχε αντικρησμα με προιοντα.
Ποσο βαθια και ποσο μακρυα θα παει θα δουμε.
70% επεσαν οι μετοχες τις τραπεζας και 2δις εχουν βγαλει εξω οι καταθετες μεχρι στιγμης.
Πολλοι ομως εχουν λογαριασμο διαμεσου το ιντερνετ και δεν μπορουν να τραβηξουν μια αφου η τραπεζα εχει μπλοκαρει το συστημα.
Οι ουρες κρατησαν απο τις 6 το προι και αυριο αναμενεται μια απ'τα ιδια.
Ειδη εχουν καλεσει αστυνομια οταν οι μανατζερ αρνηθηκαν να δωσουν πισω τα χρηματα των καταθετων.
Η δολλαροποιηση της Αργεντινης και το τι εγινε μετα θα αποτελεσει προφανως προβα τζενεραλε για το τι μελι γιγενεσθαι στον υπολοιπο κοσμο. Το γεγονος παντως οτι η αποβιομηχανοποιηση και η αποαγροτοποιηση εχει φτασει σε τετοιο σημειο οπου δεν παραγει σχεδον τιποτα η Αγγλια και εχει μετατρεψει ολα τις τα παλια εργοστασια η σε κατοικιες η σε μαγαζια οδηγει στο συμπερασμα οτι σε κραχ το μονο που θα εχει να φαει κανεις ειναι ...τσιμεντο.
Ειδη ενας ψυχολογος αναλυοντας τα παιδια του 21ου αιωνα ειπε οτι ειναι η γεννια του τσιμεντου αφου δεν εγουν δει τιποτ'αλλο απ'την φυση εκτως το κομπιουτερ τους και την τηλεωραση και εχουν παθει μια ολοκληρη γενια κριση παχυσαρκιας. Ο ψυχολογος ξεχασε να πει οτι τελικα αυτη ειναι η μοιρα ολλων αφου το μοντελο παγκοσμιοποιηση-πολυεθνικων αυτο το σκοπο τελικα ειχε. Να μετατρεψει τους λαους ανα της υφηλιου σε υπαλληλους-ρομποτ της αυτοκρατοριας των παρασιτων, των τραπεζιτων της ΗΠΑ.
Αυτες οι εικονες με ουρες εξω απο τραπεζες εγιναν πριν τον Οκτωβριο, μηνα τον οποιο αρχιζουν παντα τα σκουρα για τα χρηματιστηρια. Αφου το μυνημα τωρα ειναι να πουλας μετοχες, ποιος θα μεινει τελευταιος και πισω.
Σε λιγο ισως δουμε ταραχες πραγματικες σε τραπεζες και σε μηχανηματα ΑΤΜ. Ο συγχρονος τραπεζιτης θα γινει σαν τους μαυραγοριτες του παρελθοντος. Μισητα αποβλητα...
Συνεχιζονται οι αναλυψεις των καταθετων και τωρα ο Υπουργος Οικονομιας μιλησε στις ειδησεις λεγοντας οτι η κυβερνηση θα καλυψει τα ποσα των καταθετων. Οταν χρεοκοπει μια επιχειρηση, η οταν λενε οτι η παραγωγη ανθρακα δεν ειναι κερδοφορα δεν τρεχει η κυβερνηση να καλυψει τα κενα, απλα λεει κλειστε την επιχειρηση.
Για τους τραπεζιτες-χρηματιστες υπαρχει κρατικη επιχορηγηση και για ολους τους αλλους ας πνιγουν. Παντεταρισμενοι δεξιοι της παλιας σχολης λενε οτι το Σιτυ του Λονδινου ειναι εκτως ελεγχου. Αυτο που δεν λενε ειναι οτι προ πολλου το Σιτυ του Λονδινου ειναι επεκταση της Αμερικης.
Η τραπεζα αυτη δανειζοταν στις διεθνες αγορες για να καλυπτει τα δανεια που εδινε σε αυτους που πηγαιναν και ζηταγαν ρευστο. Η κυβερνηση Μπλαιρ εγκαινιασε μια προτοτυπια που πριν δεν υπηρχε. Χωρις κεφαλαιο μπορουσες να παρεις δανειο για να αγοραζεις σπιτια και να τα νοικιαζεις. Εδω και μια 5 ετια δεν καλυπτεται η αγορα με τα εσοδα των ενοικιων. Ολα βασιζοντουσαν στις αυξησεις των τιμων των σπιτιων. Καθε 2-3 χρονια κανανε ανακυκλωση του δανειου με την νεα αυξηση της τιμης και καλυπταν τα κενα απ'τα εισοδηματα. Φυσικα οπως ολοι οι νομοι της φυσης οταν ανεβεις σε μια πυραμιδα και φτασεις στην κορυφη μετα εχεις μονο να κατεβεις.
Οι τιμες δεν μπορουσαν συνεχως να αυξαινονται, οπως δεν μπορει να εχεις απεραντη εισροη μεταναστων να κατεβαζεις το μεροκαματο προς το μηδεν. Η αντιστροφη μετρηση αρχισε οταν δεν θα υπηρχαν αλλοι αγοραστες με πλαστο νομισμα, αφου τελικα τα χρηματα αυτα ουτε καν υπηρχαν απ'την αρχη στις τραπεζες. Και αυτοι που ειχαν δανεια δεν θα μπορουσαν να τα ξεπληρωσουν με τα 4ωρα που ειναι ο νομος τωρα πολλων δουλιων.
Σαν τραπουλαχαρτα η οικονομικη πολιτικη της Αμερικανοιποιησης θα τιναχτει στον αερα. Το Αμερικανικο κραχ αρχισε το 1929 και συνεχιστηκε εως το 1932. Το ενα τριτο του πλυθησμου παρεμεινε ανεργο, το 25% των τραπεχων εκλεισε και οδηγηθηκαμε σε πολεμο.
Το ζητουμενο εδω ειναι εαν θα παμε σε νεο πολεμο πριν ενα γενικευμενο κραχ η αμεσως μετα. Αλλη μια τραπεζα η Αλλιανς και Λεστερ εχασε το 35% των μετοχων της. Περιμενουμε τις μεγαλες εντος εβδομαδων. Υπαρχει και η θεωρια οτι αυτα ολα γινονται για να διαλυθει και η στερλινα και να μπει μετα απο κραχ στο Ευρω. Η Κεντρικη Τραπεζα του Λονδινου εβγαλε στην επιφανεια τις πληροφοριες οτι η Νορδερν Ροκ ειχε ζητηση πιστωση. Οι τραπεζιτες το πηραν σαν σημα να πουλησουν μετοχες.
Η Χαφιεδοτυπια αδυνατον να ειχαν τις πληροφοριες που εβαλα εγω αφου αυτα που εγραψα εγιναν σημερα οχι εχθες Φυσικα εχει υποθει προηγουμενα οτι παντα εγραφαν τις αυριανες ειδησεις πριν ακομα γινουν αφου αυτη η εφημεριδα ειδηκευεται στην πλαστη δημοσιογραφια ειδηκα με τον καδο τον οποιο ειχε επι δυο δεκαετιες ειδηκη σχεση με τις ...προκυρηξεις της 17Ν. Λες να ξερουν τι κανουν οι τραπεζιτες πριν το κανουν?
Μια οικονομια που βασιζεται αποκλειστικα σε 4ωρα και την χρησιμοποιηση μεταναστων (οι οποιοι δουλευουν με ρευστο και οχι με νομιμα μεσα) δεν οδηγει σε αναπτυξη αλλα σε χρεη. Βουλιαζει αργα αλλα σταθερα.
Γραφοντας για την Αγγλια ο Μαρξ τα ιδια ειπε γι'αυτο που εγινε σημερα.
Nice, too, that the capitalists, who so vociferously opposed the ‘droit au travail’ [right to work], are now everywhere demanding ‘public support’ from their governments and hence advocating the ‘droit au profit’ at public expense in Hamburg, Berlin, Stockholm, Copenhagen and even England (in the form of suspension of the Acts).
ΟΙ καπιταλιστες που εναντιωνονται στο δικαιωμα τις εργασιας παντου τωρα ζητανε την δημοσια υποστηριξη απ'τις κυβερνησεις ετσι υποστηριζουν το δικαιωμα του κερδους που θα χρεωθει στο κοινο, στο Αμβοθργο, Βερολινο, Στοκηολμι και Κοπενχαγκη ακομα και την Αγγλια...
http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1857/letters/57_12_08.htm
Με λιγα λογια απ'την στιγμη που η κυβερνηση λεει πως αναλαμβανει τα χρεη αυτης της τραπεζας και αλλες δυο που τωρα πεφτουν επισης στις συμπλιγαδες πετρες απο που θα βρουν τα χρηματα?
Η χρεοκοπια του 1929 αρχισε στην Ευρωπη (εκτως απ΄την μειωση των δανειων των Αμερικανων προς την Γερμανια) απο μια Αυστριακη τραπεζα που κυρηξε ανικανοτητα να εκπληρωσει τις υποχρεωσεις τις και οι Βρεττανοι επεμβηκαν να την σωσουν αλλα σε λιγο ολες οι τραπεζες ηθελαν την ιδια βοηθεια, που φυσικα δεν θα μπορουσε να δωσει η Βρεττανια.
Μονο η ισοπεδωση των τραπεζιτων και η επιστρογη αυστηρου ελεγχου στις οικονομιες με μισθους που δεν ξεπερνουν το ανωτερο επιπεδο ενος ειδηκευμενου εργατη και η απαλλωτριοση των πολυεθνικων εταιριων μπορει να ξαναφερει νομισματικη σταθεροτητα σε καθε χωρα. Ολα τ'αλλα οπως η απελευθερωση της εργατικης δυναμης με το μοντελο των Αμερικανων που εχουν φερει 20 εκκατομυρια μεξικανους την τελευταια δεκαετια οδηγει σε κραχ. Οι μεγαλες εταιριες 1/3 στην Αγγλια δεν πλειρονουν ουτε μια δραχμη σε φορους, οι πιο πολλες παραγουν τωρα στο εξωτερικο που θα βρεθουν οι ποροι του κρατους για να λειτουργει οι τα χρηματα για να ζει ο κοσμος?
Το οικονομικο χαος ηρθε. Απο αυτο το τουνελ πως θα βγουν οι λαοι κανενας δεν ξερει. Το σιγουρο ομως ειναι οτι εαν οι τιμες κατοικιων πεσουν, οπως δηλωσε σημερα ο Γκρινσπαν για την Αγγλια, τα 2-3 εκκατομυρια Πωλονοι που ηρθαν εδω θα μεινουν στον δρομο. Οχι μονο θα ξαναρχισουν οι φυλετικες ταραχες για τις οποιες φυμηζεται η Αγγλια ιδιαιτερα τα τελευταια δεκα χρονια με την εισαγωγη του αμερικανικου μοντελου πολυπολιτισμου αλλα θα γινει χαμος.
Μια μερα πριν ο Γκρινσπαν εκανε δηλωσει οτι οι τιμες ακινητων στην Βρετταινα θα πεσουν οπως επεσαν στην Ιαπωνια στην δεκαετια του 1990.
Τωρα λεει οτι το Ευρο μπορει να αντικαταστησει το δολλαριο σαν το παγκοσμιο νομισαμ συνναλαγων αφου οι Κεντρικες Τραπεζες εχουν το Ευρο στα 25% σε αποθεμα σε σχεση με το $. Παραλληλα ειπε οτι οι εκτως συνορων συναλλαγες των κρατων αντιστοιχη στο 39% για το Ευρο και 43% για το $. Αυτη ειναι σημαντικη ειδηση αφου ουσιαστηκα δειχνη οτι το $ βουλιαζει μαζυ με την Αμερικη που ολα τα κομματα υποστηριζουν δεξια και αριστερα.
Στις παλιες πολεις του παλαι ποτε βιομηχανικου κεντρου της Αμερικης πουλανε σπιτια τωρα για μπιτ παρα 30-40% κατω των τιμων τους. Η χρεοκοπια των ασφαλιστων εταιριων που καλυπτουν τα στεγαστικα δανεις σημαινει οτι οι τραπεζες θα πρεπει να δανειζονται απο εδω και μπρος χωρις ουδεμια ασφαλιστικη καλυψη, και ετσι αναγκαστικα θα το πολυσκεφτονται εαν οι τιμες πεφτους και αφου γνωριζουν οτι σχεδον κανενας πελατης δεν εχει τα εισοδηματα για να παρε τα δανεια στην πρωτη περιπτωση εξ'αλλου. Οσο ομως ανεβαιναν οι τιμες δεν τους ενοιαζε αφου στα χαρτια ειχαν αυξημενη περιουσια και ακομα εαν χρεοκοπουσε ο δανειοληπτης θα επερναν τα λεφτα τους πισω. Τωρα θα περνουν τουβλα χωρις αξια. Εχουν σχολασει μεχρι στιγμης 100,000 ατομα στις στεγαστικες εταιριες δανειων.
Αυτα ουτε καν κυκλοφορουν στις ειδησεις για να μην πεσει η πιστη στο νομισματικο συστημα του ιμπεριαλισμου.
AP
Greenspan: Euro Gains As Reserve Choice
Monday September 17, 8:07 am ET
Report: Former Fed Boss Says Euro Could Replace U.S. Dollar As Favored Reserve Currency
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- Former U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said it is possible that the euro could replace the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of choice.
According to an advance copy of an interview to be published in Thursday's edition of the German magazine Stern, Greenspan said that the dollar is still slightly ahead in its use as a reserve currency, but added that "it doesn't have all that much of an advantage" anymore.
ADVERTISEMENT
The euro has been soaring against the U.S. currency in recent weeks, hitting all-time high of $1.3927 last week as the dollar has fallen on turbulent market conditions stemming from the ongoing U.S. subprime crisis. The Fed meets this week and is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate from the current 5.25 percent.
Greenspan said that at the end of 2006, some 25 percent of all currency reserves held by central banks were held in euros, compared to 66 percent for the U.S. dollar.
In terms of being used as a payment for cross-border transactions, the euro is trailing the dollar only slightly with 39 percent to 43 percent.
Greenspan said the European Central Bank has become "a serious factor in the global economy."
He said the increased usage of the euro as a reserve currency has led to a lowering of interest rates in the euro zone, which has "without any doubt contributed to the current economic growth."
http://www.stern.de
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Εθνικοποιησε της τραπεζες σημερα ο Μπραουν ουσιαστηκα αφου ειπε οτι η Κεντρικη Τραπεζα θα καλυψει οποιαδηποτε χρεη οι τραπεζες εχουν στο ποσο των 10δις στερλινες για να μειωσει τις πιθανοτητες να χρεοκοπησουν ΟΛΕΣ οι τραπεζες αφου αυτο τελικα ειταν το ζητουμενο εδω.
Οι τραπεζιτες εχουν μετατρεψει τα χρηματιστηρια σ'ενα ηλεκτρονικο καζινο οπου ειπωθηκε οτι υπαρχουν 500 τρισεκατομμυρια δις στερλινες σε μελλοντικα στοιχηματα τα λεγομενα hedge funds. Τα ποσα αυτα ομως αντιστοιχουν ομως σε 8 φορες της παγκοσμιας αγορας. Στοιχηματιζοντας λοιπον στο μελλον με χρηματα που δεν υπαρχουν οδηγει στις τραπεζες να χανουν οταν οι μετοχες δεν ανεβαινουν στα ποσα με τα οποια στοιχηματησαν.
Ετσι ανα πασα στιγμη οπως αποδειχτηκε μια τραπεζικη καταρρευση οδηγει σε τσουναμι καταρρευσεων αφου ολες ειναι συνδεδεμενες με αυτα τα στοιχηματα που ειναι τελειως παραλογα.
Καλυπτωντας τις τραπεζες για να αποφυγουν κραχ απλως μεγενθυνουν το κραχ που ερχεται αφου τωρα ολες οι τραπεζες θα νομιζουν οτι θα μπορουν να κανουν δουλιες χωρις κοστος αφου θα καλυπτονται απ'το κρατος. Το κρατος ομως δεν εχει αυτα τα λεφτα και απο που θα τα βρει.
Με μαθηματικη ακριβεια η Βρεττανια παει για οικονομικη καταρρευση και το μοντελο αποβιοχανοποιηση και δανειων θηλιων θα τιναχτει στον αερα.
Οι αμερικανογλυφτες ανα τις υφηλιου θα χασουν και τα οικονομικα τους μερισματα. Μονο εισαγωντας ανοιχτως καθεστως σκλαβιας θα μπορεσουν να ισωπεδωσουν τα χρεη τους αφου ετσι κι'αλλιως τα πραγματα εχουν φτασει στα ακρα με την εισαγωγη επισημως 2.5 εκ μεταναστων απ'το 2002.
Οι τιμες στις οικοδομες πεφτουν συνεχως για τα μεροκαματα και σε λιγο δεν θα μπορει καποιος να βγαζει δανειο για σπιτι αφου ετσι και αλλιως πλαστες ειταν οι πληροφοριες για τους μισθους των μελλοντικων αγοραστων αφου εγραφαν οτι νουμερα ειταν αναγκαια για να παρουν το απαιτουμενο δανειο.
Οταν μια εταιρεια που πρσοφερει δουλιες δεν βαδιζει καλα η κυβερνηση δεν δινει μια. Για τους τραπεζιτες, τα ανοικτα συνορα και τις πολυεθνικες τα δινουν ολα. Συνεχως θα επρεπε να βαδιζουν τους μισθους προς τον πατω, τωρα που εφτασαν τον πατω ειδαν το κραχ καταμουτρα και εκαναν το παν δυνατα να το σταματησουν προσωρινα. Δεν προκειται να τους βγει. Ο Οκτωβριος ειναι πολυ μακρυα...
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/
http://www.rgemonitor.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://www.howestreet.com/
http://www.safehaven.com/
http://www.financialsense.com/
http://www.moneyweek.com/
http://www.mises.org/
http://www.dollarcollapse.com/
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Sunday, September 09, 2007
ΣΤΟ "ΒΗΜΑ" Η ΤΑΥΤΟΤΗΤΑ ΤΩΝ ΕΜΠΡΗΣΤΩΝ
ΣΤΟ "ΒΗΜΑ" Η ΤΑΥΤΟΤΗΤΑ ΤΩΝ ΕΜΠΡΗΣΤΩΝ
Όταν γκάγκστερς καίνε νύχτα κάποιο «μαγαζί», τρομοκρατώντας και δείχνοντας στον μαγαζάτορα ποιος είναι το πραγματικό αφεντικό, αφήνουν πάντα στον τόπο του εγκλήματος ευδιάκριτο ίχνος της ταυτότητας τους. Διαφορετικά η ενέργεια τους δεν θα είχε ούτε νόημα ούτε αποτέλεσμα.
Οι γκάγκστερς που μετέβαλαν σε κρανίου τόπο τη χώρα μας δεν άφησαν μόνο ίχνος. Φανέρωσαν, στις 29 του Ιούνη, φαρδιά πλατιά την ταυτότητα τους σε πρωτοσέλιδο της εφημερίδας ΤΟ ΒΗΜΑ!
Κι όμως οι πολιτικοί ταγοί μας, κυβέρνηση, κοινοβουλευτική και εξωκοινοβουλευτική αντιπολίτευση, κάνουν τους ανήξερους.
Κάποια κανάλια αναφέρθηκαν «παρεμπιπτόντως» και εν συντομία στο δημοσίευμα χωρίς να δώσουν συνέχεια. Το βδομαδιάτικο ΠΑΡΟΝ στις 3 Σεπτέμβρη ανέβασε το δημοσίευμα του Βήματος στην πρώτη σελίδα. Κι αυτή τη φορά όμως το θέμα πέρασε στο «ντούκου».
Συγκεκριμένα ο πρωτοσέλιδος τίτλος του «Βήματος» αναφέρει:
[Αμερικάνικη δυσφορία για τον νέο αγωγό αερίου
Αξιωματούχους των ΗΠΑ ζητεί από την ελληνική κυβέρνηση να «απεξαρτηθεί (η Ελλάδα) από το ρωσικό φυσικό αέριο»]
Πρόκειται για τον βοηθό υφυπουργό Εξωτερικών Ματ Μπράιζα αρμόδιο για τις ευρωπαϊκές και ευρασιατικές υποθέσεις ο οποίος, ούτε λίγο ούτε πολύ, ζήτησε με δήλωση του την ακύρωση της συμφωνίας για τον ρωσικό αγωγό και απαίτησε την προμήθεια αζέρικου φυσικού αερίου με αγωγό που δεν θα περάσει από τη Βουλγαρία αλλά απ’ την Τουρκία προς Ελλάδα και Ιταλία.
Στο κέντρο της σελίδας φωτογραφική απεικόνιση βιβλικής καταστροφής: Τεράστιο σύννεφο καπνού απ’ την φλεγόμενη Πάρνηθα, «κάθεται» πάνω στις πολυκατοικίες της Αθήνας ενώ τ’ αυτοκίνητα κυκλοφορούν μέρα μεσημέρι με αναμμένους τους προβολείς. Δίπλα ο τίτλος: «Η Αθήνα σε κλοιό φωτιάς και καπνού - Μεγάλα μέτωπα κατακαίουν Πήλιο και Αγιά…»
Και η κατακλείδα όλων αυτών, σε πλαίσιο και με μπολντ χαρακτήρες το εξής εκπληκτικό μήνυμα:
[ΠΡΟΣΟΧΗ!
Το παιχνίδι είναι μεγάλο και η χώρα μας μικρή. Η βιασύνη του Πούτιν και οι αντιδράσεις των Αμερικάνων δείχνουν ότι η Ελλάδα έχει εμπλακεί σε μια σκληρή αναμέτρηση. Αυτονόητο είναι ότι χρειάζονται προσεκτικές αποφάσεις και ευέλικτες κινήσεις. Η Ελλάδα πρέπει να βγει κερδισμένη και να μη γίνει στόχος εκδικητικής μανίας, διότι όλοι γνωρίζουμε πλέον πως αντιδρούν οι μεγάλες δυνάμεις.
ΤΟ ΒΗΜΑ]
Επρόκειτο για προειδοποίηση ή ήταν απειλή; Το σίγουρο είναι πως όταν υπογράφεται απ’ το δίδυμο Λαμπράκης - Ψυχάρης είναι σα να υπογράφει το ίδιο το Στέιτ Ντιπάρτμεντ.
http://www.jucee.org/China/Gas-Pipeline-Politics-May-Ignite-Global-Resource-Wars.html
Gas Pipeline Politics May Ignite Global Resource Wars
With Russia already using its natural gas to unpleasant woman-slap former Soviet republics and threaten European Union "customers," the U.S. faces face-downs as its un-democratic rivals seek to control gas and oil supplies, and, doubtless later, water and other necessities. Look for China and India to make international deals that deal us out! And, yes, we'll have to help rearm Japan before we're checkmated at crucial supply routes.
Meanwhile, as Bush prepares to kiss Putin's butt and make nice with Kim Jong Il, the USA now faces the true cost of invading Iraq, letting Afghanistan crumble, and allowing Iran and Syria to help trap us in the Middle East.
=====
"Politics Of the Pipelines"
"U.S. Seeks Ways to Route Natural Gas Around Russia"
By Steven Mufson Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, July 11, 2006; D01
For a low-profile State Department official, Matthew J. Bryza gets around. A member of the bureau of European and Eurasian affairs, he frequents places such as Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan. This year, he's also popped in on people in Brussels, Rome and Berlin. One key item on his agenda: persuading governments and energy companies to build natural gas pipelines that skirt Russia.
New routes that avoid Russia would "make the market function better" and enhance energy security, a senior State Department official said. "We're sharing information and a vision." Russia doesn't share that vision. The Kremlin has been conducting its own campaign to lock producing countries in Central Asia and consumer countries in Europe more tightly into Russia's pipeline network.
The politics of gas pipelines has added friction to the preparations for the Saturday to Monday meeting of the Group of Eight industrial nations, to be hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. A year ago, Putin said this meeting's "key topic" would be energy. "The country which is definitely a leader in the world market is ordained by God to deal with this issue," he said after last July's G-8 summit.
news reports
Hello to all, The news report on papers or TV which reported small problem here and there but afterall these are just mother haa a...
Despite Putin's boast, the summit's focus on energy will only highlight why Russia remains a troublesome issue for the West. The oil and gas industry reflects Russia's autocratic nature, diplomats and energy experts say; it is controlled by the state, opaque to Western investors and difficult for foreign firms to enter.
Although the United States and Russia may strike a deal on reprocessing waste from nuclear power plants, the pipeline politics has highlighted the mutual mistrust between Russia and the West, especially after Russia briefly cut gas supplies to its neighbor Ukraine in January. While Russia said it wanted to end subsidies on natural gas sold to Ukraine since Soviet days, squeezing supplies in winter shortly after the ouster of a pro-Russian president smacked of a crbutt political maneuver.
"No legitimate interest is served when oil and gas become tools of intimidation or blackmail," Vice President Cheney said in a May 4 speech in Vilnius, Lithuania, angering Russians. Because much of the Russian gas bound for Europe flowed through the Ukraine route, people in European capitals took notice. "This sharpened the atbreastudes of Europeans even more than the Americans," said a senior European diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity because talks are ongoing. "This was very much an important thing for us."
Europe relies on Russia for about a third of its natural gas supplies. Those supplies arrive via two major pipeline routes constructed in the 1980s over the objections of the Reagan administration. Today the United States realizes that Russian gas will remain vital to Europe, but it is pushing nations to diversify supplies so that Russia cannot exploit Europe's energy dependence for political purposes.
"What does it mean to achieve energy security when you're reliant on one country?" Karen Harbert, buttistant secretary for policy and international affairs at the Energy Department, asked at a meeting at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
At the same time, however, Russia sells 80 percent of its natural gas to Europe and is worried about European plans to increase gas purchases from Algeria and Libya, as well as about liquefied natural gas from Qatar, which plans to triple its exports.
Will Japan Go Nuclear
Kim Jong-Il has done it before and now he's at it again. He's played his strongest card--the threat of war by nuclear weapons--in his continuing program to extract concessions...
Bryza and more senior U.S. officials have been promoting pipeline routes that would bring gas from fields in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan near the Caspian Sea through Turkey to Europe. One such pipeline, from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey, opens Oct. 1. U.S. officials have been saying that reserves in Azerbaijan alone could justify bigger pipelines even if territorial disputes over the Caspian Sea are not resolved. (Missing from the U.S. vision: supplies from Iran, whose natural gas reserves are second to only Russia's.)
Former Soviet Bloc countries are enthusiastic, especially since Russia has boosted prices on gas sold to Moldova and Belarus. Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili said during a recent visit here that he supports a pipeline that would bring gas from the Caspian Sea basin through Azerbaijan and Georgia, then under the Black Sea (to avoid Russia) to Romania and then north to Poland. Building that line would take at least five years.
Meanwhile, Moscow isn't idle. It has dangled higher prices in front of producers including Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. It has held talks with other gas-exporting nations, such as Algeria and Iran, about coordinating policies so they don't undercut one another. And it has deployed former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to promote a new direct pipeline link between Russia and Germany. (Schroeder now works for the Swiss-based pipeline venture controlled by Russia's state-controlled OAO Gazprom.)
Poles fear that a Russian-German pipeline under the Baltic Sea would enable Russia to pressure Poland, which would no longer be a transit route for Russian gas destined for Germany. In late April, Poland's defense minister, Radek Sikorski, said that the deal to build the $5 billion, 750-mile pipeline was in "the Molotov-Ribbentrop tradition," a reference to the pact between Hitler's and Stalin's foreign ministers that led to the parbreastion of Poland in World War II.
"We want . . . no monopolies or blackmails, price-fixing or the use of energy as a tool of politics, or geopolitics," Sikorski said in an interview with the BBC.
Not everyone buys the U.S. vision. "It's very simple to make lines on a map," said a European energy company executive who had met with Bryza and spoke on condition of anonymity to protect his U.S. relationships. "It costs $2 billion, if not more, to build a pipeline from Turkey." Many European companies have interests in Russian gas projects. German energy giant E.On Ruhrgas AG and chemical giant BASF AG own minority stakes in Gazprom's Northern European Gas Pipeline under the Baltic. The Italian state oil company, Eni SpA, is Gazprom's partner in the Blue Stream pipeline that carries gas from Russia to Turkey under the Black Sea.
But Russia is still worried. Eni is also building a pipeline from Libya to Italy. And Qatar says a third of its exports will go to Europe.
As part of its strategy to hang onto European markets and expand its reach, Russia wants cash-rich Gazprom to invest in European gas distribution systems in Britain, Germany and Italy. Russian officials say that if Western firms want to invest in exploration and production in Russia,
Gazprom should have similar access to Western investment opportunities.
Europe is reluctant, though. In a subtle yet clear message, two European Union ministers wrote in May to the Russian government, saying the compebreastion "rules applied to Gazprom will be no different to those applied to . . . other companies." They noted that "the fact that Gazprom is the exclusive exporter of gas from Russia to the EU, when other Russian companies and foreign joint ventures with gas reserves would otherwise be in a position to supply the EU market, will be a significant fact that will necessarily be taken into account."
"Reciprocity is something we're looking for," said the senior State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are ongoing. He urged Russia to let foreign oil or gas firms explore and use Russia's pipelines.
Yet foreign investors still find Russia challenging territory. Russia has announced new limits on foreign ownership of key energy resources. TNK-BP, a joint venture involving BP PLC, has had trouble getting access to export pipelines; delays have been seen as an effort to force it to sell a stake in its fields. Last week, Russia's parliament reaffirmed Gazprom's monopoly over the nation's gas pipelines. And 10 months after releasing a short list of five foreign firms, including U.S.-based Chevron Inc. and Conoco Phillips, Russia has still not said which ones will share with Gazprom the rights to explore the big Shtokman natural gas field.
Russia has avoided a new conflict over Ukraine on the eve of the G-8 summit. In January, Russia and Ukraine reached a temporary accord, which expired July 1. A decision on new terms has been delayed until Ukraine forms a new government. That will be, conveniently for Russia, after the G-8 meeting.
Meanwhile, Moscow has been wooing foreign gas producers. Shortly after Cheney visited Kazakhstan and won a pledge from that country's president to export Kazakh gas through a trans-Caspian pipeline, Russian officials visited Kazakhstan and reportedly reached a deal for Gazprom to transport Kazakh gas.
Turkmenistan is also negotiating with Russia, seeking to raise the price it is paid by two-thirds. It may accept less, but there is still no pipeline across the Caspian, and Turkmen relations with Azerbaijan aren't great. "Turkmenistan doesn't have much of an option," said Hossein Ebneyousef, president of International Petroleum Enterprises, a consulting firm.
Bush Using Diplomacy! Must Be Impeached
We need plants, not diplomacy! We need threats not consensus! We need saber-rattling, not U.N. resolutions...
But if Russian concerns about compebreastion from other nations helped raise the price paid to Turkmenistan, that is a sign that the U.S. strategy is working, U.S. officials say. And if European nations buy more supplies from Libya, Algeria and Qatar, that's as helpful as buying more from Azerbaijan. "That's the name of the game: Get more coming in from every possible direction -- except Iran, of course," the State Department official said.
=====
http://www.polit.ru/event/2007/07/27/tgi.html
Not Blue Stream
The administration of USA President George W. Bush has congratulated leaders of Italy, Turkey and Greece with making of contract about new alternative gas pipeline from the Caspian region to Europe. “The United States congratulates the Prime Ministers of Turkey, Greece, and Italy on their signing of the Intergovernmental Agreement for the Turkey-Greece-Italy Pipeline (TGI) today in Rome,” - says the official announcement of the Spokesman of the U.S. Department of State, Sean McCormack,
There is nothing astonishing in this statement, since the USA are already for a long time quite a significant player in the Caspian region, so an agreement aimed at export of the gas to Europe can be only avail for the USA.
Undesirable Stream
But the Caspian gas is becoming increasingly more interesting for the USA. This March Azerbaijan Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov and the U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Energy Security Cooperation in the Caspian Region. In the opinion of the USA Russia is de facto the major supplierof gas in Europe that is a violation of the competitive principle. Turkey receives 65 percent of gas from Russia, as well as Europe, which gets fro Russia 40 percent of gas.
That’s why the USA has been hatching a geopolitical idea of the South Stream long since. The so-called South Stream, i.e. a way of gas transit from the Caspian region through Turkey to Europe and, can totally change the strategic map of Eurasia, since it offers Europe a better hope on large supplies of the natural gas that will allow to ensure diversification and retreat from the even more deepening dependence on one supplier or one net, reckons Deputy Secretary of State on Europe and Eurasia.
U.S. Department of State Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza recently argued that “What this agreement is about is building on Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum to help Azerbaijan attract investment, to expand its gas production, move that gas through that BTE pipeline, and then take that gas and move it onward to Greece and Italy through a pipeline that is almost completed called the Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline, and that’s mentioned in the MOU.”
“Also, later, as gas production in Azerbaijan increases, we hope the gas will also move in the so-called Nabucco pipeline -– named after the opera, Nabucco.”
Nabucco is to pass through Turkey-Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria. The project costs 5 billion euros and is to over in 2011.
Imbalance of plans
The Azerbaijani state-run oil company (SOCAR) has already announced about its intension to transport gas in Greece in this year. The president of the company Rovnag Abdullayev argued that according to the agreement between Turkey and Greece, Greece will receive 800 mcm of gas at the cost of $149 per 1 thousand cubic meters; SOCAR intends to export a half of all the amount.
The problem is that Azerbaijan gas will not be enough. “The gas pipeline Baku-Erzurum, and, correspondingly, one through Turkey-Greece-Italy are intended nor for Azerbaijani gas but for one of Central Asia. Azerbaijan can fill it up only for 30-40%. The country certainly has such potential but it should be developed, since the country has always focused attention on oil,” supposes professor for political sciences, head of Eurasian Media Group Vartan Toganyan.
And here a game has just begun. Until now Turkmenistan has not declared for its participation in the project, but in theory the gas pipeline Baku-Erzurum is intended for Turkmenian gas. “Turkmenistan has sufficient reserves of gas to meet all export requirements; so Nabucco opens new possibilities for it. Certainly, new investments are required and Russian companies can participate in it, but technically there are no difficulties. It is rather a matter of policy; so, the new president of Turkmenistan has quite a deliberate policy. Thus it will certainly allow Turkmenistan to feel more free during negotiations for the transit prices with Russia, but it’s a business. Russia behaves in the same way with Ukraine and Belarus,” argues an analyst of the Panorama research center Anvar Amirov.
In theory Iran can also export its gas via this pipeline, but here a Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy interferes. The USA position stays still unchangeable, it won’t cancel sanctions imposed on Iran. “In the future Iran will certainly try joining such projects and entering the gas market of the European Union,” reckons Toganyan. But at the moment Iran has problems with gas supplies even in the North of the country, since its gas fields are situated in the south.
European gas importers try hard to use this resource to diversify gas supplies as much as possible. At the moment natural gas is received mostly from Russia or en route from Central Asia. Analysts estimate, in 2030 year volume of oil and gas import in the EU countries will increase up to 60 percent. All this gas will be supplied from countries not being member of the Union. Thus a problem of diversification of gas resources is extremely important for Europe, so it is very interested in Azerbaijani gas. Thomas Geisel, Senior Vice-President of E.ON Ruhrgas AG recently claimed that the company planned to receive 20-25 bcm of Azerbaijani gas per year.
Can they begin without us?
However, plans of Europe and the USA to create a new system of energy security are still nothing but plans. Baku-Erzurum project is still being developed, stressed Toagnyan, and Europe will face serious problems. After Saparmurat Niyazov’s death Turkmenistan headed for diversification of gas resources distribution, signed with Russia and Kazakhstan an agreement on Trans-Caspian gas pipeline construction. According to the analyst that can become a serious hindrance for European plans to obtain a monopoly for Caspian gas resources. But Gazprom also is not exactly enamoured with the idea of the South stream.
Vladimir Putin stated repeatedly that Russia was a “reliable partner” and that violation of European energy security was simple not on. Moreover, according to Putin, Russia is just a guarantor of the European energy security. From the very inflexion of these statements and from how frequent they are repeated, it becomes obvious that Russian authorities are seriously anxious with positions of Gazprom on European markets and with plans of gas supplies diversifications. At the same time Gazprom tries to establish alternative supplies in Turkey, i.e. to lurch Baku-Erzrum project.
As a matter of fact Gazprom is already supplying Turkey with gas, but Turkey is not still a transit country for Russian gas. “One should take into account an upturn in economics of Turkey, although at the moment it is fully secured. It cannot be excluded that in this situation Turkey will use its strategic position and become a transit country, as, for example, Ukraine does,” reckons Anvar Amirov.
Prospects of the so boosted project Blue Stream-2 (a pipeline via Black Sea in Turkey) are still obscure; no definite terms have been announced. Now a new agreement between Turkey, Italy and Greece has been signed, and that gives possibility for rapid realization of TGI project. Thus it’s high time for thinking of the Blue Stream-2 seriously.
27 июля 2007, 17:47
Ivan Grinko
Mikhail Zakharov
Όταν γκάγκστερς καίνε νύχτα κάποιο «μαγαζί», τρομοκρατώντας και δείχνοντας στον μαγαζάτορα ποιος είναι το πραγματικό αφεντικό, αφήνουν πάντα στον τόπο του εγκλήματος ευδιάκριτο ίχνος της ταυτότητας τους. Διαφορετικά η ενέργεια τους δεν θα είχε ούτε νόημα ούτε αποτέλεσμα.
Οι γκάγκστερς που μετέβαλαν σε κρανίου τόπο τη χώρα μας δεν άφησαν μόνο ίχνος. Φανέρωσαν, στις 29 του Ιούνη, φαρδιά πλατιά την ταυτότητα τους σε πρωτοσέλιδο της εφημερίδας ΤΟ ΒΗΜΑ!
Κι όμως οι πολιτικοί ταγοί μας, κυβέρνηση, κοινοβουλευτική και εξωκοινοβουλευτική αντιπολίτευση, κάνουν τους ανήξερους.
Κάποια κανάλια αναφέρθηκαν «παρεμπιπτόντως» και εν συντομία στο δημοσίευμα χωρίς να δώσουν συνέχεια. Το βδομαδιάτικο ΠΑΡΟΝ στις 3 Σεπτέμβρη ανέβασε το δημοσίευμα του Βήματος στην πρώτη σελίδα. Κι αυτή τη φορά όμως το θέμα πέρασε στο «ντούκου».
Συγκεκριμένα ο πρωτοσέλιδος τίτλος του «Βήματος» αναφέρει:
[Αμερικάνικη δυσφορία για τον νέο αγωγό αερίου
Αξιωματούχους των ΗΠΑ ζητεί από την ελληνική κυβέρνηση να «απεξαρτηθεί (η Ελλάδα) από το ρωσικό φυσικό αέριο»]
Πρόκειται για τον βοηθό υφυπουργό Εξωτερικών Ματ Μπράιζα αρμόδιο για τις ευρωπαϊκές και ευρασιατικές υποθέσεις ο οποίος, ούτε λίγο ούτε πολύ, ζήτησε με δήλωση του την ακύρωση της συμφωνίας για τον ρωσικό αγωγό και απαίτησε την προμήθεια αζέρικου φυσικού αερίου με αγωγό που δεν θα περάσει από τη Βουλγαρία αλλά απ’ την Τουρκία προς Ελλάδα και Ιταλία.
Στο κέντρο της σελίδας φωτογραφική απεικόνιση βιβλικής καταστροφής: Τεράστιο σύννεφο καπνού απ’ την φλεγόμενη Πάρνηθα, «κάθεται» πάνω στις πολυκατοικίες της Αθήνας ενώ τ’ αυτοκίνητα κυκλοφορούν μέρα μεσημέρι με αναμμένους τους προβολείς. Δίπλα ο τίτλος: «Η Αθήνα σε κλοιό φωτιάς και καπνού - Μεγάλα μέτωπα κατακαίουν Πήλιο και Αγιά…»
Και η κατακλείδα όλων αυτών, σε πλαίσιο και με μπολντ χαρακτήρες το εξής εκπληκτικό μήνυμα:
[ΠΡΟΣΟΧΗ!
Το παιχνίδι είναι μεγάλο και η χώρα μας μικρή. Η βιασύνη του Πούτιν και οι αντιδράσεις των Αμερικάνων δείχνουν ότι η Ελλάδα έχει εμπλακεί σε μια σκληρή αναμέτρηση. Αυτονόητο είναι ότι χρειάζονται προσεκτικές αποφάσεις και ευέλικτες κινήσεις. Η Ελλάδα πρέπει να βγει κερδισμένη και να μη γίνει στόχος εκδικητικής μανίας, διότι όλοι γνωρίζουμε πλέον πως αντιδρούν οι μεγάλες δυνάμεις.
ΤΟ ΒΗΜΑ]
Επρόκειτο για προειδοποίηση ή ήταν απειλή; Το σίγουρο είναι πως όταν υπογράφεται απ’ το δίδυμο Λαμπράκης - Ψυχάρης είναι σα να υπογράφει το ίδιο το Στέιτ Ντιπάρτμεντ.
http://www.jucee.org/China/Gas-Pipeline-Politics-May-Ignite-Global-Resource-Wars.html
Gas Pipeline Politics May Ignite Global Resource Wars
With Russia already using its natural gas to unpleasant woman-slap former Soviet republics and threaten European Union "customers," the U.S. faces face-downs as its un-democratic rivals seek to control gas and oil supplies, and, doubtless later, water and other necessities. Look for China and India to make international deals that deal us out! And, yes, we'll have to help rearm Japan before we're checkmated at crucial supply routes.
Meanwhile, as Bush prepares to kiss Putin's butt and make nice with Kim Jong Il, the USA now faces the true cost of invading Iraq, letting Afghanistan crumble, and allowing Iran and Syria to help trap us in the Middle East.
=====
"Politics Of the Pipelines"
"U.S. Seeks Ways to Route Natural Gas Around Russia"
By Steven Mufson Washington Post Staff Writer Tuesday, July 11, 2006; D01
For a low-profile State Department official, Matthew J. Bryza gets around. A member of the bureau of European and Eurasian affairs, he frequents places such as Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan. This year, he's also popped in on people in Brussels, Rome and Berlin. One key item on his agenda: persuading governments and energy companies to build natural gas pipelines that skirt Russia.
New routes that avoid Russia would "make the market function better" and enhance energy security, a senior State Department official said. "We're sharing information and a vision." Russia doesn't share that vision. The Kremlin has been conducting its own campaign to lock producing countries in Central Asia and consumer countries in Europe more tightly into Russia's pipeline network.
The politics of gas pipelines has added friction to the preparations for the Saturday to Monday meeting of the Group of Eight industrial nations, to be hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. A year ago, Putin said this meeting's "key topic" would be energy. "The country which is definitely a leader in the world market is ordained by God to deal with this issue," he said after last July's G-8 summit.
news reports
Hello to all, The news report on papers or TV which reported small problem here and there but afterall these are just mother haa a...
Despite Putin's boast, the summit's focus on energy will only highlight why Russia remains a troublesome issue for the West. The oil and gas industry reflects Russia's autocratic nature, diplomats and energy experts say; it is controlled by the state, opaque to Western investors and difficult for foreign firms to enter.
Although the United States and Russia may strike a deal on reprocessing waste from nuclear power plants, the pipeline politics has highlighted the mutual mistrust between Russia and the West, especially after Russia briefly cut gas supplies to its neighbor Ukraine in January. While Russia said it wanted to end subsidies on natural gas sold to Ukraine since Soviet days, squeezing supplies in winter shortly after the ouster of a pro-Russian president smacked of a crbutt political maneuver.
"No legitimate interest is served when oil and gas become tools of intimidation or blackmail," Vice President Cheney said in a May 4 speech in Vilnius, Lithuania, angering Russians. Because much of the Russian gas bound for Europe flowed through the Ukraine route, people in European capitals took notice. "This sharpened the atbreastudes of Europeans even more than the Americans," said a senior European diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity because talks are ongoing. "This was very much an important thing for us."
Europe relies on Russia for about a third of its natural gas supplies. Those supplies arrive via two major pipeline routes constructed in the 1980s over the objections of the Reagan administration. Today the United States realizes that Russian gas will remain vital to Europe, but it is pushing nations to diversify supplies so that Russia cannot exploit Europe's energy dependence for political purposes.
"What does it mean to achieve energy security when you're reliant on one country?" Karen Harbert, buttistant secretary for policy and international affairs at the Energy Department, asked at a meeting at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
At the same time, however, Russia sells 80 percent of its natural gas to Europe and is worried about European plans to increase gas purchases from Algeria and Libya, as well as about liquefied natural gas from Qatar, which plans to triple its exports.
Will Japan Go Nuclear
Kim Jong-Il has done it before and now he's at it again. He's played his strongest card--the threat of war by nuclear weapons--in his continuing program to extract concessions...
Bryza and more senior U.S. officials have been promoting pipeline routes that would bring gas from fields in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan near the Caspian Sea through Turkey to Europe. One such pipeline, from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey, opens Oct. 1. U.S. officials have been saying that reserves in Azerbaijan alone could justify bigger pipelines even if territorial disputes over the Caspian Sea are not resolved. (Missing from the U.S. vision: supplies from Iran, whose natural gas reserves are second to only Russia's.)
Former Soviet Bloc countries are enthusiastic, especially since Russia has boosted prices on gas sold to Moldova and Belarus. Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili said during a recent visit here that he supports a pipeline that would bring gas from the Caspian Sea basin through Azerbaijan and Georgia, then under the Black Sea (to avoid Russia) to Romania and then north to Poland. Building that line would take at least five years.
Meanwhile, Moscow isn't idle. It has dangled higher prices in front of producers including Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. It has held talks with other gas-exporting nations, such as Algeria and Iran, about coordinating policies so they don't undercut one another. And it has deployed former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder to promote a new direct pipeline link between Russia and Germany. (Schroeder now works for the Swiss-based pipeline venture controlled by Russia's state-controlled OAO Gazprom.)
Poles fear that a Russian-German pipeline under the Baltic Sea would enable Russia to pressure Poland, which would no longer be a transit route for Russian gas destined for Germany. In late April, Poland's defense minister, Radek Sikorski, said that the deal to build the $5 billion, 750-mile pipeline was in "the Molotov-Ribbentrop tradition," a reference to the pact between Hitler's and Stalin's foreign ministers that led to the parbreastion of Poland in World War II.
"We want . . . no monopolies or blackmails, price-fixing or the use of energy as a tool of politics, or geopolitics," Sikorski said in an interview with the BBC.
Not everyone buys the U.S. vision. "It's very simple to make lines on a map," said a European energy company executive who had met with Bryza and spoke on condition of anonymity to protect his U.S. relationships. "It costs $2 billion, if not more, to build a pipeline from Turkey." Many European companies have interests in Russian gas projects. German energy giant E.On Ruhrgas AG and chemical giant BASF AG own minority stakes in Gazprom's Northern European Gas Pipeline under the Baltic. The Italian state oil company, Eni SpA, is Gazprom's partner in the Blue Stream pipeline that carries gas from Russia to Turkey under the Black Sea.
But Russia is still worried. Eni is also building a pipeline from Libya to Italy. And Qatar says a third of its exports will go to Europe.
As part of its strategy to hang onto European markets and expand its reach, Russia wants cash-rich Gazprom to invest in European gas distribution systems in Britain, Germany and Italy. Russian officials say that if Western firms want to invest in exploration and production in Russia,
Gazprom should have similar access to Western investment opportunities.
Europe is reluctant, though. In a subtle yet clear message, two European Union ministers wrote in May to the Russian government, saying the compebreastion "rules applied to Gazprom will be no different to those applied to . . . other companies." They noted that "the fact that Gazprom is the exclusive exporter of gas from Russia to the EU, when other Russian companies and foreign joint ventures with gas reserves would otherwise be in a position to supply the EU market, will be a significant fact that will necessarily be taken into account."
"Reciprocity is something we're looking for," said the senior State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks are ongoing. He urged Russia to let foreign oil or gas firms explore and use Russia's pipelines.
Yet foreign investors still find Russia challenging territory. Russia has announced new limits on foreign ownership of key energy resources. TNK-BP, a joint venture involving BP PLC, has had trouble getting access to export pipelines; delays have been seen as an effort to force it to sell a stake in its fields. Last week, Russia's parliament reaffirmed Gazprom's monopoly over the nation's gas pipelines. And 10 months after releasing a short list of five foreign firms, including U.S.-based Chevron Inc. and Conoco Phillips, Russia has still not said which ones will share with Gazprom the rights to explore the big Shtokman natural gas field.
Russia has avoided a new conflict over Ukraine on the eve of the G-8 summit. In January, Russia and Ukraine reached a temporary accord, which expired July 1. A decision on new terms has been delayed until Ukraine forms a new government. That will be, conveniently for Russia, after the G-8 meeting.
Meanwhile, Moscow has been wooing foreign gas producers. Shortly after Cheney visited Kazakhstan and won a pledge from that country's president to export Kazakh gas through a trans-Caspian pipeline, Russian officials visited Kazakhstan and reportedly reached a deal for Gazprom to transport Kazakh gas.
Turkmenistan is also negotiating with Russia, seeking to raise the price it is paid by two-thirds. It may accept less, but there is still no pipeline across the Caspian, and Turkmen relations with Azerbaijan aren't great. "Turkmenistan doesn't have much of an option," said Hossein Ebneyousef, president of International Petroleum Enterprises, a consulting firm.
Bush Using Diplomacy! Must Be Impeached
We need plants, not diplomacy! We need threats not consensus! We need saber-rattling, not U.N. resolutions...
But if Russian concerns about compebreastion from other nations helped raise the price paid to Turkmenistan, that is a sign that the U.S. strategy is working, U.S. officials say. And if European nations buy more supplies from Libya, Algeria and Qatar, that's as helpful as buying more from Azerbaijan. "That's the name of the game: Get more coming in from every possible direction -- except Iran, of course," the State Department official said.
=====
http://www.polit.ru/event/2007/07/27/tgi.html
Not Blue Stream
The administration of USA President George W. Bush has congratulated leaders of Italy, Turkey and Greece with making of contract about new alternative gas pipeline from the Caspian region to Europe. “The United States congratulates the Prime Ministers of Turkey, Greece, and Italy on their signing of the Intergovernmental Agreement for the Turkey-Greece-Italy Pipeline (TGI) today in Rome,” - says the official announcement of the Spokesman of the U.S. Department of State, Sean McCormack,
There is nothing astonishing in this statement, since the USA are already for a long time quite a significant player in the Caspian region, so an agreement aimed at export of the gas to Europe can be only avail for the USA.
Undesirable Stream
But the Caspian gas is becoming increasingly more interesting for the USA. This March Azerbaijan Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov and the U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Energy Security Cooperation in the Caspian Region. In the opinion of the USA Russia is de facto the major supplierof gas in Europe that is a violation of the competitive principle. Turkey receives 65 percent of gas from Russia, as well as Europe, which gets fro Russia 40 percent of gas.
That’s why the USA has been hatching a geopolitical idea of the South Stream long since. The so-called South Stream, i.e. a way of gas transit from the Caspian region through Turkey to Europe and, can totally change the strategic map of Eurasia, since it offers Europe a better hope on large supplies of the natural gas that will allow to ensure diversification and retreat from the even more deepening dependence on one supplier or one net, reckons Deputy Secretary of State on Europe and Eurasia.
U.S. Department of State Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza recently argued that “What this agreement is about is building on Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum to help Azerbaijan attract investment, to expand its gas production, move that gas through that BTE pipeline, and then take that gas and move it onward to Greece and Italy through a pipeline that is almost completed called the Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline, and that’s mentioned in the MOU.”
“Also, later, as gas production in Azerbaijan increases, we hope the gas will also move in the so-called Nabucco pipeline -– named after the opera, Nabucco.”
Nabucco is to pass through Turkey-Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary-Austria. The project costs 5 billion euros and is to over in 2011.
Imbalance of plans
The Azerbaijani state-run oil company (SOCAR) has already announced about its intension to transport gas in Greece in this year. The president of the company Rovnag Abdullayev argued that according to the agreement between Turkey and Greece, Greece will receive 800 mcm of gas at the cost of $149 per 1 thousand cubic meters; SOCAR intends to export a half of all the amount.
The problem is that Azerbaijan gas will not be enough. “The gas pipeline Baku-Erzurum, and, correspondingly, one through Turkey-Greece-Italy are intended nor for Azerbaijani gas but for one of Central Asia. Azerbaijan can fill it up only for 30-40%. The country certainly has such potential but it should be developed, since the country has always focused attention on oil,” supposes professor for political sciences, head of Eurasian Media Group Vartan Toganyan.
And here a game has just begun. Until now Turkmenistan has not declared for its participation in the project, but in theory the gas pipeline Baku-Erzurum is intended for Turkmenian gas. “Turkmenistan has sufficient reserves of gas to meet all export requirements; so Nabucco opens new possibilities for it. Certainly, new investments are required and Russian companies can participate in it, but technically there are no difficulties. It is rather a matter of policy; so, the new president of Turkmenistan has quite a deliberate policy. Thus it will certainly allow Turkmenistan to feel more free during negotiations for the transit prices with Russia, but it’s a business. Russia behaves in the same way with Ukraine and Belarus,” argues an analyst of the Panorama research center Anvar Amirov.
In theory Iran can also export its gas via this pipeline, but here a Nuclear Nonproliferation Policy interferes. The USA position stays still unchangeable, it won’t cancel sanctions imposed on Iran. “In the future Iran will certainly try joining such projects and entering the gas market of the European Union,” reckons Toganyan. But at the moment Iran has problems with gas supplies even in the North of the country, since its gas fields are situated in the south.
European gas importers try hard to use this resource to diversify gas supplies as much as possible. At the moment natural gas is received mostly from Russia or en route from Central Asia. Analysts estimate, in 2030 year volume of oil and gas import in the EU countries will increase up to 60 percent. All this gas will be supplied from countries not being member of the Union. Thus a problem of diversification of gas resources is extremely important for Europe, so it is very interested in Azerbaijani gas. Thomas Geisel, Senior Vice-President of E.ON Ruhrgas AG recently claimed that the company planned to receive 20-25 bcm of Azerbaijani gas per year.
Can they begin without us?
However, plans of Europe and the USA to create a new system of energy security are still nothing but plans. Baku-Erzurum project is still being developed, stressed Toagnyan, and Europe will face serious problems. After Saparmurat Niyazov’s death Turkmenistan headed for diversification of gas resources distribution, signed with Russia and Kazakhstan an agreement on Trans-Caspian gas pipeline construction. According to the analyst that can become a serious hindrance for European plans to obtain a monopoly for Caspian gas resources. But Gazprom also is not exactly enamoured with the idea of the South stream.
Vladimir Putin stated repeatedly that Russia was a “reliable partner” and that violation of European energy security was simple not on. Moreover, according to Putin, Russia is just a guarantor of the European energy security. From the very inflexion of these statements and from how frequent they are repeated, it becomes obvious that Russian authorities are seriously anxious with positions of Gazprom on European markets and with plans of gas supplies diversifications. At the same time Gazprom tries to establish alternative supplies in Turkey, i.e. to lurch Baku-Erzrum project.
As a matter of fact Gazprom is already supplying Turkey with gas, but Turkey is not still a transit country for Russian gas. “One should take into account an upturn in economics of Turkey, although at the moment it is fully secured. It cannot be excluded that in this situation Turkey will use its strategic position and become a transit country, as, for example, Ukraine does,” reckons Anvar Amirov.
Prospects of the so boosted project Blue Stream-2 (a pipeline via Black Sea in Turkey) are still obscure; no definite terms have been announced. Now a new agreement between Turkey, Italy and Greece has been signed, and that gives possibility for rapid realization of TGI project. Thus it’s high time for thinking of the Blue Stream-2 seriously.
27 июля 2007, 17:47
Ivan Grinko
Mikhail Zakharov
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)